who is winning the presidential election right now
With just hours to go before America goes to the polls to elect its 45th President, the race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton remains as close as well.
The polls get most of the attention, but they have not historically been the most important part of the early stages of a presidential campaign. The better guide to who’s really winning is known as the invisible primary, in which candidates compete for support from their fellow politicians, from party leaders and from donors.
A candidate who wins the invisible primary usually wins the party nomination. At the least, the eventual nominee tends to be a candidate who was a close runner-up. Why? The support of party leaders is both a sign of a candidate’s long-term strength and a source of future strength. One fascinating dynamic: This support may matter less in 2016 than it has in the recent past, which is why the prediction markets have recently moved away from the candidates with the most elite support.
As for the polls, they’re not irrelevant — and they have become increasingly relevant, now that we’re only weeks from the first votes being cast. But the national polls matter less than the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to vote and the states where voters are paying more attention to the candidates.
Here, we offer a scoreboard that totes up the factors that matter most, and we’ll update it every day.
As with endorsements, money matters for two reasons: It’s a sign of a candidate’s strength, and it then becomes a further source of strength. Jeb Bush leads the fund-raising competition by a large amount, but he is so weak in the polls that money may not be enough. The calculations here include both the money raised directly by a campaign and the money raised by the super PACs and other outside groups allied with the campaign.
New Hampshire Polls
New Hampshire’s Republicans are also starting to pay attention to the race, and they’re more moderate than Iowa’s. New Hampshire has a better recent record of picking the nominee, going four for six starting in 1980 for Republicans and three for six since 1984 for Democrats. Over that span, no candidate has won the nomination without winning at least some delegates in either New Hampshire or Iowa.
Clinton could win for the following reasons:
- Moderates make up an important segment of America’s voting base–about 40 percent. Since Trump’s message is especially alienating to those in the middle, moderates are more likely to go for Clinton.
- Trump is the most negatively viewed candidate in history with holding unfavorable views, as opposed to Clinton’s 54 percent unfavorability, which is still quite high
- The factors that fueled Trump’s rise in the primaries are not necessarily applicable to a general election, in which we will see Trump attacked ruthlessly from all sides.
- During the GOP debates, there was a lot of agreement in sentiment and fear of party alienation—Democrats won’t hesitate to call him out on sexism, bigotry, and any other number of isms to sway undecided voters.
- 87 percent of Latino voters have a negative view of Trump, as do 80 to 90 percent of black Americans and 70 percent of women. Without these demographics, it’s next to impossible to flip crucial swing states like Florida from blue to red.
- Today, President Obama’s favorability is at a , the economy is , and personal satisfaction has risen, creating a solid climate for a Democratic candidate.
who is winning the presidential election right now certain elements give Trump an edge:
- Obama ran a historic campaign that drew young people and minorities to the polls in record numbers. Without his charisma or the promise of hope and change, Clinton is unlikely to measure up.
- Trump’s anti-establishment platform is the bread and butter of blue collar Americans spanning party lines, and his primaries yielded an unprecedented turnout that cannot be ignored. It’s the type of Bernie Sanders wished he had.
- Though Trump’s favorability among Republicans is middling at best, his resonance with the country’s white middle class, anti-establishment types, and angry working class may make up for it.
- The only thing that may make up for Clinton’s favorability among Democrats is the fear of a Donald Trump presidency, and the movement makes it clear that even that won’t entice some progressives. If women and minorities don’t turn up for Clinton like they did for Obama, she could truly be in trouble.
- Trump is a natural antithesis to Obama and progressive movements like Black Lives Matter; he would be in America’s long history of reactionary politics
As both candidates are polarizing figures with baggage galore, it’s likely to be a doozy of an election should the two be matched. That said, there are many factors that could change things: the economy, for starters, along with scandals and gaffes, terrorist attacks, and the results of the FBI’s email investigation.Guess who is winning the presidential election right now.