As the 2016 Presidential Election is coming ahead, Presidential Election Prediction got viral in numerous pollsters.
Well, it was bound to happen, as many flip-flops has been seen in this Presidential Election Prediction after post-convention of both parties. Even the Election map for 2016 Presidential Election got twisted for some controversial approaches and events of both Major party candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald J Trump.
On 19 may, 2016 Republican Trump got his first lead in the 2016 Presidential Election Predictions in some pollster, but that had been eradicated because of some blunders and bad tempers.
Besides, Democrat Clinton had also lost her double-digit lead over Trump, because of some smart approaches of Trump and her hide and seek game about his health state, put her in danger for a while.
However, she came back in the track again, after two-days break, with a long explanation ever yet for the Presidential Campaign history of her. Post-debate performance also affected the Presidential Election Predictions as well as Trump’s comments on sexually assaulting women.
Besides, it is also found that polls also differ from the election day result. So it can’t be say anything for sure.
Presidential Election Prediction Based on Electoral College votes
As much information got from Pollster, RealClearPolitics, updated 11 October, Democrat Clinton is holding 263 Electoral college votes compared to Republican Trump’s 164 votes.
However, it does not make Democrat Clinton winner in the 2016 Presidential Election, as 111 electoral college votes, are still tied between two parties, which can change the 2016 Presidential Election Predictions in the future pollsters.
If we go through the 2016 Presidential Election map, consisting of 50 states including the district of Columbia, we can get a complete hypothetical 2016 Presidential Election Prediction.
Democrat Clinton has confirmed electoral college votes in numerous states, such as Delaware, Vermont, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Oregon, Maryland, Massachusetts, Washington, Illinois, New York and California.
Well, in some states probably she may win and those states are New Hampshire, Maine, New Mexico, Connecticut, Colorado, Wisconsin, Virginia, New Jersey, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
They both tied up in some states, which are also known as crucial or most swing states in 2016 Presidential Election Prediction. These states are Nevada, Iowa, Florida, Minnesota, Ohio, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. These are known as swing states because of the published 2016 Presidential Polls results, where some Republican or Republican leaning states are showing as well as developing their interests in Democrat Clinton and vice versa for Democrat or Democrat Leaning States.
If we arrange those swing states on the basis of holding Electoral College votes, the serial starts from Florida and ends at Nevada, following by Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Arizona and Colorado respectively.
The most crucial one is Florida, holding 29 Electoral College votes, as if Clinton wins this swing states then Trump has to win other swing states to be the next President for the United states of Nations.
In spite of being Democrat dominated states, Clinton tied up Trump in Ohio. He is just left behind by 3 percentage votes of Clinton in Ohio and has to make sure to overcome those percentage to sustain the chance of winning the 2016 Presidential Election.
However, Georgia, holding 16 Electoral College votes, is a strong base for Republicans since 1996 Presidential Election till now and it would be a great knock if Clinton manage to win here for the first time in the history of Presidential Election of US.
Even pollster was unable to make any sure comment about North Carolina’s poll results as they always showed some flip-flop in the period of different pollsters. North Carolina is holding crucial 15 electoral college votes.
Though Arizona was fully dominated by Republicans since 2000’s Presidential Election, Clinton has somehow managed to toss up with Trump in this States in recent polls results.
Well, in case of Colorado’s 9 Electoral College votes, these have gone to the favor of Democrats since two elections, being a strong Republican base since 1996 Presidential election.
Clinton has nothing to worry about Nevada, as this has been the Democrat dominated since 2008’s Presidential Election. It is also perceived that 6 Electoral College votes have backed the candidate in 2012 Presidential Election.
Other Figures of 2016 Presidential Election Prediction
The difference of support for Clinton and Trump is variable to some important issues, such as their popularity, trustworthiness and even for their temperament towards any situation.
Washington Post Poll for 2016 Presidential Election has shown that 69 per cent of non-whites and 52 per cent of women favor Clinton, while 57 per cent of whites and men support the Republican.
More people think Clinton has the right kind of temperament and personality to be a good president, while Trump has been chosen by people as the candidate who could bring about “real change” in Washington.
Just 33 per cent of Americas think Clinton is honest and trustworthy, compared to 35 per cent thinking the same of Trump; 57 per cent of people say they don’t share Clinton’s values, while the number is even higher for Trump, at 62 per cent.
Even support from own party members has differed in some pollster. For example, Some big Republicans figures have refused to endorse Trump, while YouGov polling has shown that just over half of Bernie Sanders’ supporters would back Clinton.
They both have failed to gain trust of the people of America, as per recent New York Times and CBS News Polling for 2016 Presidential Election, as a result of some mispresenting of some situation.
Effects of Presidential Debate on Prediction
Democrat Clinton has gained more points in the polls after the 2016 Presidential Debates performance.
After the first 2016 Presidential Debate on 26 September she has gained four points lead over Trump, as per 2016 Presidential Election Prediction base on recent pollsters.
Clinton has also sustained her improvement in pollsters after 2nd Presidential Debate 2016. Most of the credit goes to Trump for this result, as his caddish comments made a great chaos prior that event.
As we always said, nothing can be told with so much confident in spite of having some obvious 2016 Presidential Election Prediction.