Apparently, the Post-Labor 2016 presidential polls of today brought the most yearning news, to the Republican campaign after both party’s convention. Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump seems to be in the close margin among swing states of Florid, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
In accordance with the latest Reuters/Ipsos polls, published on Saturday, Trump leads Clinton by 45% to 43%, while Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 7% and the Green Party Jill Stein at just 2%, on a national basis 2016 presidential polls.
Though Clinton still has a chance 83% chance of winning the presidency if the election of November 8 were held today, she had a 95% chance of winning presidency earlier in the August 2016 Presidential Polls.
In the Electoral college, ultimate selector of US president, Clinton has an average of 47 votes, whereas she had 108 electoral votes. A Strife about handling classified information while serving as secretary of State, can be considered as one of the main reason, for Clinton’s 8-point fall in the 2016 Presidential Polls, since last week of August.
2016 Presidential Polls among States
2016 Presidential Polls among different states, 17 states are still in favor of Clinton, such as New York, New Jersey and California, with large, urban populations, who seems to influence the result of the election. Meanwhile, Trump seems to win 23 states, which have smaller population.
The main change has happened in Ohio and Florida, which were considered to be in favor of Clinton in late August. Now the candidates are almost nearly in those states. Including Michigan and North Carolina, five more states are also up for claim.
Reuters/Ipsos poll for 2016 Presidential Polls could not count the result due to deficient sample size in Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska and the District of Columbia. Usually Alaska is Democratic leaning state and Washington D.C. is Republican leaning state.
A Quinnipiac University Swing State 2016 Presidential Poll, published on Thursday, depicts that Democrat Clinton and Republican Trump are in neck-to-neck races among likely voters in the hazardous states, such as Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
The presidential matchups show:
- Florida – Clinton and Trump tied 47 – 47 percent;
- North Carolina – Clinton at 47 percent, with Trump at 43 percent;
- Ohio – Trump at 46 percent to Clinton’s 45 percent;
- Pennsylvania – Clinton tops Trump 48 – 43 percent. With third party candidates in the race, results are:
- Florida – Clinton and Trump tied 43 – 43 percent, Libertarian Gary Johnson at 8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent;
- North Carolina – Clinton edges Trump 42 – 38 percent, with 15 percent for Johnson. Stein is not on the ballot here;
- Ohio – Trump edges Clinton 41 – 37 percent, with Johnson at 14 percent and Stein at 4 percent;
- Pennsylvania – Clinton tops Trump 44 – 39 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.
“The effect of the Republican and Democratic conventions on the presidential race has run its course. As the campaign enters its final stage, Florida and Ohio, two of the largest and most important Swing States, are too close to call, while North Carolina and Pennsylvania give Hillary Clinton the narrowest of leads,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“The obvious takeaway from these numbers is that Donald Trump has staged a comeback from his post-Democratic convention lows, especially in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Taking a bit longer view, however, we see a race that appears little changed from where it was as the GOP convention began in July, and at least in these four key states is very much up for grabs.”
2016 Presidential Polls on Florida by Quinnipiac
Democrat Clinton grasps 56-36 percentage supports from the women and non-white voters are in favor of Clinton by 67-25 percent, while Democrats back Clinton 94 – 4 percent.
Trump has got back by 56 – 36 percent by white voters and 88 – 9 percent among Republicans. However, 58 – 36 percent men is supporting him.
Brown considered racism can be the reason for this contrast, “To understand the racial divide in the electorate, consider the sharp contrast between white men and non-white voters in Florida. Trump is getting just 25 percent from minority voters, while Clinton gets just 26 percent of white men,” Brown said.
North Carolina’s 2016 Presidential Polls
Clinton and Trump is so close in North Carolina as Clinton is on 46% and Trump is on 44% among likely voters. Again women backing Clinton here by 49 – 42 percent.
Besides, white voters are also causing a great slip in the poll result, as 60 – 30 percent voters are in favor of Republican, whereas 81-10 percent of non-white voters go for Democratic.
Brown explained that, “North Carolina is the exception to the rule in this first-ever presidential campaign between a man and a woman, a state with a very small gender gap.”
Additionally, Republicans back Trump 91 – 6 percent and holds 44 percent of independent voters to Clinton’s 41 percent.
2016 Presidential Polls on Ohio
A little bit changed is noticed in Ohio rather than prior two states, as Clinton is lag behind by Trump.
In case of women, they back Clinton by 52 – 39 percent, whereas men support Trump 53 – 38 percent. Clinton got 81 – 11 percent support from non – white voters and Trump holds 53- 38 percent, same as men support, white voters in his support.
Trump leads Clinton among Independent voters by 43 to 41 percent. Meanwhile Clinton is leading among Democrats by 88 – 9 percent and Trump is on 86 – 9 percent among Republicans.
Brown added that, “Libertarian Gary Johnson could decide the presidential election in the Buckeye State. He is getting 14 percent from Ohio voters and how that cohort eventually votes could be critical in this swing state – and in the nation.”
2016 Presidential Polls on Pennsylvania
It seems that Clinton has slipped from her prior position as her 52 – 42 percent to 48 – 43 percent, since recent weeks of August.
Even her support among women has also dropped to 54 – 39 percent from 59 – 36 percent since last month. Trump is also dropped from 49 – 44 percent to 48 – 41 percent among men voters.
Among non-white voters Clinton is holding 75 – 15 percent and Trump gets 50 – 42 Percent among white voters.
Trump holds 82 – 9 percent among Republicans while Clinton is on 87 – 11 percent among Democrats, from 92 – 5 percent. However, Clinton is up among 51 – 39 percent independent voters.
Quinnipiac University Swing State poll identified gender and racial gap have a great influence on 2016 Presidential Polls, while huge racial gap is found on North Carolina without any gender gap. Clinton missed out support among women and Democrats in Pennsylvania.
“What was a comfortable 10-point Hillary Clinton cushion in Pennsylvania is now a five- point lead. Where did those five points go?” asked Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. He added that, “You have only to look at the female demographic, as Clinton’s bedrock support among women wobbled in the span of a few weeks. Pennsylvania, so crucial and looking like the most solid swing state for Hillary Clinton is back in play.”
2016 Presidential Polls at a glimpse
From August 29 – September 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
- 761 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
- 751 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
- 775 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points;
- 778 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina and the nation as a public service and for research.
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